Nepal Shaken by Rising Earthquake Activity: Causes, History, and Preparedness

Introduction

Shaken Awake at 2:51 AM – Nepal was jolted from sleep when a powerful earthquake struck Sindhupalchowk in the pre-dawn hours. At 2:51 AM local time, a 6.1 magnitude tremor ripped through the Himalayan foothills, 65 km east of Kathmandu, shaking homes and sending terrified residents running into the night​

m.economictimes.com. This sudden quake – felt across central and eastern Nepal and into neighboring India and Tibet – is only the latest in a wave of seismic shocks rattling the country. In just the past few weeks, Nepal has experienced a spate of significant quakes, including a 7.0 magnitude event near the Chinese border on January 7, 2025​

seismonepal.gov.np, and numerous moderate tremors from the western mountains to the Kathmandu Valley​

risingnepaldaily.com. These frequent Nepal earthquake updates have millions asking: Are earthquakes in Nepal increasing, and if so, why?

Nepal sits atop one of the most active seismic zones on Earth, and any uptick in tremors is cause for concern. The Himalayan nation is no stranger to earthquakes – from the cataclysmic 1934 quake that leveled cities to the 2015 Gorkha disaster that killed nearly 9,000 people​

britannica.com. But the recent clusters of quakes have raised new alarms. Is the Earth unleashing more of its fury on Nepal due to shifting tectonic forces, or could other factors like climate change be playing a subtle role? And most importantly, what does this surge in seismic activity signify for the safety of Nepal’s 30 million people living under the shadow of the world’s highest peaks?

In this in-depth report, we explore why earthquakes in Nepal appear to be on the rise and why it matters. We’ll delve into the scientific reasons – from the grinding collision of tectonic plates beneath the Himalayas to possible climate-linked triggers – that explain the growing seismic unrest. We’ll look back at historical earthquakes that shaped Nepal’s past (including the devastating 1934 and 2015 quakes) and compare them to today’s patterns. You’ll hear from geologists and experts who warn that even bigger quakes are likely on the horizon, and learn what Nepal’s government and communities are doing to prepare and mitigate the impact. Finally, we’ll outline practical earthquake preparedness tips and a call to action for readers to stay safe and informed.

Why is the ground shaking more often in Nepal? Could a mega-quake be looming, or are these frequent tremors a new normal? Read on to find out – and to learn how you can be ready when the next big one strikes.

britannica.com.

Scientific Reasons for Increasing Earthquakes

Tectonic Turmoil: Himalayan Plate Collision

Nepal’s restless geology is driven by an immense and unceasing force beneath its soil – the collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. Millions of years ago, the Indian Plate began plowing northward into the Eurasian Plate, giving rise to the Himalayas. That collision is still happening today, pushing the ground upward and sideways and storing huge amounts of energy in the Earth’s crust. The Indian Plate is currently moving about 2–3 centimeters per year toward Eurasia​ worlddata.info​

risingnepaldaily.com. This might sound slow, but on a geologic timescale it’s a breakneck speed – and the results are dramatic. The ongoing convergence crushes and crumples the crust along the boundary, which runs directly under Nepal, and this intense compressional stress is released as earthquakes when it builds up past a breaking point​ worlddata.info.

Geologists describe Nepal as being atop a giant tectonic vise. The primary fault system of the Himalayas – often called the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) or Main Frontal Thrust – is the mega-fault along which the Indian plate is diving under the Eurasian plate. Think of it as a 1,400-mile stretch of overlapping geological plates stuck together: when a segment of this fault suddenly lurches, the land above it shakes violently. This is exactly what happens during Nepal’s big quakes. The 2015 Gorkha earthquake, for example, occurred on a segment of this thrust fault, releasing centuries of pent-up strain in seconds. Scientists note that Nepal lies in the central part of the young Hindu Kush-Himalaya region, where the Indian plate’s subduction under Eurasia causes regular earthquakes​

risingnepaldaily.com. Essentially, tectonic plate movements are the root cause of Nepal’s frequent quakes – the plates are inexorably moving, grinding, and locking, until pressure is unleashed as an earthquake.

Importantly, many of Nepal’s quakes are shallow-focus earthquakes, occurring less than 20 km below the surface​

worlddata.info. Shallow quakes tend to be more destructive because the seismic energy doesn’t have far to travel before reaching the surface. When a shallow section of the Himalayan fault snaps, the shaking above can be severe. This was evident in both 1934 and 2015: relatively shallow ruptures led to extreme ground motion over broad areas. Geological studies also show that these are mostly thrust-fault earthquakes along the main Himalayan fault – essentially the Indian plate pushing under Nepal in a sudden slip​

worlddata.info.

Why Do They Seem to be Increasing?

If the plate collision is continuous, earthquakes are nothing new – so why does it feel like Nepal is shaking more often lately? One reason is the concept of seismic cycles and the uneven release of energy. Major earthquakes release vast amounts of strain, which then slowly begins accumulating again. Nepal appears to be in an active period of strain release in some segments of its faults. Since the 2015 quake did not release all the built-up energy, especially in western Nepal and parts of the Kathmandu region, the crust has continued to rupture in fits and starts to relieve stress​

risingnepaldaily.com. Seismologists point out that many moderate quakes and aftershocks have occurred along the Himalayan arc after 2015 – particularly to the east – indicating the crust adjusting after that event​

english.makalukhabar.com. Meanwhile, western Nepal has remained eerily quiet for centuries, which is actually a warning sign: stress has been accumulating there since a huge quake in 1505, and it hasn’t been released yet.

risingnepaldaily.com. The recent swarms of smaller quakes in western districts could be foreshocks or signals that this locked section is becoming unstable​

risingnepaldaily.com. In other words, increased small quake activity might herald a larger release coming, making it seem like quakes are “increasing” on the path to an eventual big one.

Another factor is simply better monitoring and public awareness. Nepal’s National Earthquake Monitoring Center now records many micro-tremors that in the past might have gone unnoticed. According to Dr. Lok Bijaya Adhikari, a senior seismologist at the center, Nepal experiences around 10 measurable earthquakes every single day on average​

risingnepaldaily.com. Most of these are tiny (magnitude 2–3) and cause no damage, but improved instruments and instant news mean people hear about quakes more frequently. The center only publicly reports quakes above magnitude 4, yet even at that threshold Nepal had 11 quakes over M4.0 in just two months from late 2024 to early 2025​

risingnepaldaily.com​

risingnepaldaily.com. This flurry of activity, mostly minor quakes, might give the impression of a spike – and it does reflect genuine seismic restlessness – but part of it is also heightened observation.

Himalayan Fault Lines and Seismic Hotspots

Nepal’s landscape is crosscut by multiple fault lines associated with the Indo-Eurasian collision. The Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) marks the southern edge of the Himalayas (where the mountains meet the plains) and is a major active fault that has produced past great quakes. Further north are the Main Central Thrust and other splays – all are essentially cracks where the crust can slip. These faults often rupture segment by segment. For example, the eastern section of Nepal’s main fault has seen frequent tremors since 2015​

english.makalukhabar.com, including the powerful aftershock in May 2015 (M7.3) that hit Dolakha. In contrast, western Nepal (west of about Pokhara) has not had a large earthquake since 1505, creating what scientists call a seismic gap​

english.makalukhabar.com​

risingnepaldaily.com. That gap is like a loaded spring – the plates are still moving there, but the fault hasn’t broken in a long time, so enormous strain is likely trapped. Experts warn that this region is overdue and increasingly vulnerable to a major quake if the fault segment there ruptures all at once. Some even estimate a potential magnitude 8+ quake could occur in western Nepal based on the length of the fault section that is locked since 1505​

risingnepaldaily.com.

Nepal’s capital itself sits in a bowl of sediment that amplifies shaking. Kathmandu Valley is essentially an ancient lakebed filled with soft sediments which can greatly increase the shaking intensity for certain frequencies of seismic waves. This is one reason Kathmandu suffered so badly in 1934 and 2015. Studies after the 2015 quake showed complex effects – in some cases the soft soil resonated and magnified the damage in parts of the Valley​

businesstoday.in​

businesstoday.in. Thus, the local geology and fault structure play a big role in how destructive an earthquake is. When we say earthquakes are “increasing,” it might also mean we’re seeing more events in populated or high-risk areas recently (like the Valley or western hills), which understandably causes more alarm.

Could Climate Change Affect Earthquakes?

On the face of it, climate change and earthquakes seem unrelated – after all, shifting tectonic plates deep underground aren’t directly altered by weather. However, scientists are exploring a few indirect links where climate and environmental changes might influence seismic activity or its impacts. One such factor is the effect of seasonal rainfall and water load on the Earth’s crust. Nepal’s annual monsoon dumps billions of tons of water onto the land each summer, and then the water dissipates in winter. Geophysicists have found that this cycle can slightly alter stress on faults: during and after the monsoon, as water weight presses and then recedes, it might trigger small quakes in a seasonal pattern. In fact, a study of Himalayan quakes over decades discovered an “earthquake season” – twice as many small quakes occur in the dry winter months (after the monsoon) than in summer​

caltech.edu​

caltech.edu. The hypothesis is that when the heavy rains end and water drains away, the crust elastically rebounds and causes minor fault slips in winter. As climate change causes more extreme rainfall or alters the monsoon timing, these stress fluctuations could become more pronounced, potentially influencing the timing of moderate tremors (though not creating large quakes out of nothing).

Another climate-related factor is the melting of Himalayan glaciers and the growth of glacial lakes. Warming temperatures are rapidly shrinking Nepal’s glaciers, creating numerous glacial lakes dammed by unstable debris. These lakes pose a secondary hazard: an earthquake can trigger a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Scientists warn that in the Himalayas, even a moderate quake (magnitude 5+) near glaciated regions carries an extra risk – it could breach a glacial lake and send a catastrophic flood downstream​

dialogue.earth. Rising temperatures have formed thousands of new glacier-fed lakes (over 8,000 in the Himalayas) and at least 200 are deemed potentially dangerous​

dialogue.earth. This means the destructive impact of earthquakes is amplified by climate change; a quake now might not only shake buildings but also unleash landslides or floods in a chain reaction​

dialogue.earth​

dialogue.earth. As one climate-disaster expert notes, an earthquake in the Himalaya can become a “complex disaster” – first the ground shakes, then landslides wipe out villages or floods roar down valleys due to climate-weakened slopes and glacial lakes​

dialogue.earth.

There’s also research into whether large reservoirs and dams (often built to address climate-driven hydropower needs) can induce quakes. For instance, in the nearby Chenab Valley of India, a cluster of 13 earthquakes in 5 days was attributed by one researcher to the pressure of new mega-dams – a phenomenon known as reservoir-induced seismicity​

dialogue.earth. Nepal is rapidly building hydropower projects; while most quakes are tectonic, filling large reservoirs could trigger small tremors on pre-existing faults. Climate change drives demand for hydropower (a cleaner energy source), so there’s an indirect link where human responses to climate might affect seismicity.

In summary, climate change does not directly cause earthquakes, but it can increase the risks and consequences associated with them. Heavier rainfall and glacial melt make Nepal’s landscape more fragile – so when quakes occur, landslides and floods are more likely. Some scientists cautiously suggest climate-related stress changes (from water or ice mass shifts) could slightly alter the timing or frequency of smaller earthquakes, but this is an active area of research. What’s clear is that Nepal’s earthquakes are primarily driven by geology – the relentless push of the Indian Plate – now enhanced with a twist of climate-related complexity.

Historical Earthquakes in Nepal

Nepal’s concern about increasing quakes is rooted in a tragic history of devastating earthquakes. The country’s historical records show a major earthquake striking roughly once per century (or sometimes more frequently), inflicting massive damage each time​

en.wikipedia.org. Understanding this history puts today’s seismic activity in context. Here is a timeline of some of the most significant earthquakes in Nepal’s history and their impacts:

• 1255 AD – The Great Medieval Quake: The first recorded earthquake in Nepal struck on June 7, 1255 during the reign of King Abhaya Malla. Estimates later put its magnitude around 7.8. This disaster was cataclysmic for its time – it killed one-third of Kathmandu’s population, including the king himself​en.wikipedia.org. Medieval chronicles report that the valley’s palaces and temples crumbled. This set the precedent: Nepal has witnessed at least one major earthquake per century since 1255​en.wikipedia.org.
• 1344 AD – Another Medieval Jolt: Less than a century after 1255, another huge quake (estimated ~M7.9) rocked the Kathmandu Valley and eastern Nepal​en.wikipedia.org. It likely caused heavy destruction (some records speak of damage in Bhaktapur and beyond), although detailed accounts are sparse. These back-to-back medieval quakes left a mark on Nepal’s early architecture and population.
• 1505 AD – The Lo Mustang Mega-Quake: Perhaps the largest Himalayan earthquake on record, this quake struck on June 6, 1505. It’s estimated around M8.2 and ruptured a vast stretch of the Himalaya, likely in western Nepal (Lo Mustang region)​risingnepaldaily.com​risingnepaldaily.com. The historical data is limited, but it’s known as a destructive event felt as far as Tibet and India. The 1505 quake is crucial because no comparably large quake has hit western Nepal since then. It released stress in that era, but centuries of quiet have followed – creating the seismic gap experts warn about today.
• 1833 AD – Kathmandu–Bihar Earthquake: On August 26, 1833, a powerful quake (est. M7.6–7.8) struck the Kathmandu Valley and northern Bihar. It reportedly came as a double shock (two major tremors within a minute). Historical records say around 6,000–7,000 people were killed​en.wikipedia.org. Many buildings in Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, and Patan were severely damaged or destroyed. Notably, this wasn’t as large as 1934 later proved to be, but it still inflicted heavy casualties and was one of the worst 19th-century quakes in the region.
• January 15, 1934 – The Great Nepal-Bihar Earthquake: This is often cited as Nepal’s worst disaster of the modern era (before 2015). Around 8:43 am, a gigantic magnitude ~8.0–8.4 earthquake tore through eastern Nepal and the Bihar region of India​en.wikipedia.org​risingnepaldaily.com. In Nepal, the three iconic cities of Kathmandu Valley – Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, and Patan – were virtually flattened. Contemporary accounts by General Brahma Shamsher report 8,519 deaths in Nepal​risingnepaldaily.com, but total casualties including India were estimated around 10,700–12,000​weblog.iom.int. Entire villages were buried by landslides. In Kathmandu, nearly every building collapsed or was badly damaged; one-third of all homes were destroyed. The land fissured open in many places. This quake left an indelible scar on Nepali society – it’s why even older generations speak of ’90 saal ko bhukampa (the ’90 year of Bikram Sambat, i.e., 1934 AD quake) with dread. The memory of 1934’s devastation loomed large when earthquake preparedness was later considered. It also led to the tradition of marking Earthquake Safety Day in Nepal on its anniversary each year.
• July 29, 1980 – Far-West Nepal Quake: A magnitude 6.5 earthquake struck the far-western region (near Bajhang/Pithoragarh)​en.wikipedia.org. While not as powerful as others on this list, it caused significant localized damage due to poor construction. About 200 people were killed in far-western Nepal and adjoining India​en.wikipedia.org. This was a reminder that even mid-sized quakes can be deadly in remote areas without resilient infrastructure.
• August 21, 1988 – Udayapur (Eastern Nepal) Earthquake: Just before midnight, a 6.8 magnitude quake hit eastern Nepal, with its epicenter in Udayapur region. This quake wrought destruction across eastern Nepal and parts of Bihar, India. In Nepal, it caused 721 deaths and 12,000+ injuries, and about 66,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed​risingnepaldaily.com. The shaking was felt strongly even in Kathmandu Valley, causing panic (though valley damage was limited compared to east Nepal). The 1988 disaster exposed the vulnerability of Nepal’s rural buildings – many homes collapsed in Sunsari, Dharan, and nearby districts. It prompted Nepal to start developing stricter building codes in the 1990s (like the Building Code Development Project, 1994 which is referenced in reports of the damage)​risingnepaldaily.com.
• April 25, 2015 – The Gorkha Earthquake: Shortly before noon on this date, Nepal was rocked by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake – its worst in 81 years. The epicenter was in Gorkha District (northwest of Kathmandu), and the quake ripped through central Nepal. The impact was catastrophic: about 8,790 people were killed and over 22,300 injured​risingnepaldaily.com. Entire villages in Gorkha, Sindhupalchok, Nuwakot and other districts were razed by landslides. In Kathmandu, dozens of iconic historic structures – including the Dharahara tower and many temples – collapsed. The shaking was so powerful it leveled over 498,000 houses completely and damaged ~256,000 more across Nepal​risingnepaldaily.com. Critical infrastructure, schools, and hospitals were heavily hit (over 19,000 classrooms destroyed)​risingnepaldaily.com. The economy was dealt a blow of an estimated $7 billion in losses. The initial 7.8 shock was followed by a strong M6.7 aftershock the same day, and an even larger M7.3 aftershock on May 12, 2015, centered in Dolakha, which caused additional damage and over 150 fatalities​risingnepaldaily.com. The 2015 quake, also called the Nepal Earthquake of 2015 or Gorkha quake, was a defining moment for current generations – vivid in living memory and a wake-up call about Nepal’s seismic risks. It underscored how vulnerable even the capital city is, despite modern development. International aid poured in for rescue and recovery, and it spurred a new push for preparedness (like the formation of Nepal’s reconstruction authority and later the NDRRMA for disaster risk management).
• Recent Years (2022–2023) – Mid-Sized Quakes in Western Nepal: After 2015, most larger earthquakes struck on Nepal’s periphery (like the Tibet border 7.1 in 2025). But notably, western Nepal saw a series of moderate quakes that grabbed headlines for their destruction, highlighting how increasing seismic activity is not just a theoretical concern. On November 9, 2022, a 6.6 magnitude quake hit Doti in far-west Nepal, killing 6 people and fully destroying over 4,600 houses (with thousands more damaged)​risingnepaldaily.com. Less than a year later, on October 3, 2023, Bajhang district was struck by a sequence of quakes – a foreshock of 5.3, then a 6.3 main shock, followed by aftershocks​risingnepaldaily.com. These triggered landslides that caused casualties and significant structural damage in the area​risingnepaldaily.com. Most devastating was November 3, 2023, when a 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck the border of Jajarkot and Rukum West in western Nepal. Because it hit in a densely populated rural area with vulnerable buildings, it led to a tragedy: 154 people lost their lives and 366 were injured​risingnepaldaily.com. Over 62,000 homes were destroyed or damaged across 11 districts by this quake​risingnepaldaily.com, as well as hundreds of schools and public buildings. For a mid-6 magnitude event, the toll was very high – underscoring Nepal’s continued vulnerability. These recent quakes in 2022–23 serve as stark reminders that even “moderate” earthquakes can wreak havoc if they occur in the wrong place, and that the western region’s seismic energy is starting to rumble after a long lull.

Each of these historical quakes taught Nepal painful lessons. For instance, 1934 led to better urban planning (however slow), 1988 led to building code drafting, and 2015 accelerated disaster preparedness and resilient reconstruction. By comparing past and present, one pattern emerges: population growth and urbanization have made the impacts of equally strong quakes more severe in modern times. A quake that might have hit mostly sparse villages a century ago today strikes cities teeming with millions. Thus, the significance of increasing earthquakes now is higher – there are simply more lives and infrastructure at stake than ever before in Nepal’s history. This is why scientists and historians look at the timeline and conclude not only that big quakes will happen again, but that their humanitarian impact could be even greater if Nepal isn’t prepared.

Expert Opinions and Research Insights

Is Nepal truly facing more frequent quakes, and how worried should we be about the “big one” coming? To answer that, it helps to hear from experts – geologists, seismologists, and disaster specialists – who study Nepal’s seismic risk. Their insights, backed by research, paint a sobering picture: yes, Nepal is highly earthquake-prone, and current patterns could be the prelude to something larger. But there are also nuances – many small quakes can release energy gradually, and improved engineering can mitigate damage. Let’s look at what the experts are saying:

Seismologists on the Ground: Dr. Lok Bijaya Adhikari, Senior Divisional Seismologist at Nepal’s National Earthquake Monitoring & Research Center, has been monitoring the recent quakes closely. He notes that while Nepal has seen a cluster of quakes around magnitude 4–6 in late 2024 and early 2025, these tremors by themselves are not huge – “earthquakes measuring 4.8 to 5.0 are not of a magnitude that could cause significant damage,” he explains, which is why their effects were mostly only felt near the epicenters​

risingnepaldaily.com. However, he warns that the pattern of quakes – especially the concentration in western Nepal – could indicate that area’s vulnerability is increasing​

risingnepaldaily.com. Western Nepal, as discussed, hasn’t released its stored tectonic energy yet. Dr. Adhikari emphasizes that the recent magnitude-5 range quakes “have not significantly dissipated the vast energy accumulated beneath Western Nepal.” They are far too small to unload the stress that has built over 500 years​

risingnepaldaily.com​

risingnepaldaily.com. In plain words, he says these moderate quakes are just drops in the bucket: “This earthquake is only of moderate intensity and has not released the stored subterranean energy…energy capable of triggering a mega-quake remains stored beneath Western Nepal”​

risingnepaldaily.com​

risingnepaldaily.com. His conclusion is chilling: the risk of a mega-quake in western Nepal remains highly likely at any time​

risingnepaldaily.com.

Dr. Adhikari also dispels a myth – some wondered if recent quakes in the west were aftershocks of the 2015 Gorkha quake. He clarifies they are not; they are occurring in a different segment of the fault system altogether​

risingnepaldaily.com. This means they are independent events – fresh ruptures, not just echoing 2015 – which further underscores that a new big quake in the west is a distinct threat.

Another Nepali expert, Bharat Prasad Koirala, a senior seismologist, points out that Kathmandu Valley and surrounding areas remain under serious threat as well​

risingnepaldaily.com. The 2015 quake released a lot of energy in a 150-km stretch from Gorkha through Kathmandu’s northeast (Dolakha), but “the energy stored beneath the southern region of Kathmandu remains unreleased,” according to Koirala​

risingnepaldaily.com. Essentially, the fault segment just south of Kathmandu (along the Mahabharat/Chure range) did not rupture in 2015, even though it ideally should have as part of that event. This is a worrying assessment: significant strain might still lurk on the edges of the 2015 rupture zone, meaning Kathmandu is not off the hook just because it survived 2015. Koirala explains that this persistent accumulation “continues to pose a seismic threat to Kathmandu and its surroundings”​

risingnepaldaily.com.

What do international experts say? Prominent geophysicist Dr. Roger Bilham (University of Colorado), who has studied Himalayan earthquakes for decades, has repeatedly warned that it’s not a matter of if a great earthquake will hit the Himalayas, but when. Since the 2015 quake, Bilham and colleagues have noted that the section of the Himalayan arc west of the 2015 rupture is ripe for a giant earthquake – possibly exceeding magnitude 8.0. He and other scientists have described the Himalaya as “overdue for a massive earthquake.” In fact, just two months before the 2015 quake, a scientific study had pointed out the high likelihood of a great quake in that area​

hindustantimes.com (tragically prescient timing). After 2015, Bilham cautioned that the earthquake did not alleviate the entire risk – there’s still enough strain for another big one. Business Today quotes: “For years, scientists have been warning that the Himalayan belt is overdue for a massive earthquake. Since the 2015 Nepal earthquake, experts have said that a tremor of magnitude 8 or higher is inevitable in the region.” He reiterated that a megaquake hitting the densely populated region (which includes northern India’s Gangetic plain adjacent to Nepal) could affect over 300 million people when it happens​

businesstoday.in​

businesstoday.in. In Bilham’s blunt words, a great Himalayan quake is not a matter of “if” but “when”​

businesstoday.in.

Research by teams including French and Nepali geologists (e.g., Laurent Bollinger, Yves Avouac, Sudhir Rajaure) have mapped the strain accumulation rates. They find that the plate convergence across Nepal (about 18–20 mm/year) is partially released by periodic major quakes, but there are still segments where slip deficit (unreleased slip) is large. For western Nepal, the slip deficit since 1505 equates to potentially 15+ meters of unreleased slip – which could result in an extremely large quake if released in one event. Their trenching studies of past quakes in Nepal’s Terai (plains) also confirm that huge earthquakes (M≈8) ruptured long stretches in 1255, 1934, etc. and will do so again. These scientific findings align with local experts’ warnings: the energy for a megaquake remains locked and loaded beneath Nepal’s crust​

risingnepaldaily.com.

On the flip side, some experts discuss whether the increase in small quakes is a silver lining. Could frequent small quakes be creeping the fault and releasing energy in bits so that a bigger one is less likely? It’s a hopeful idea – the concept of slow release. However, seismologist Dr. Adhikari addresses this: small quakes do release some energy, but compared to what a big quake would release, it’s negligible. For example, he noted that even the 6.4 Jajarkot quake of 2023 “released only a minuscule fraction of the massive energy stored” in western Nepal​

risingnepaldaily.com. So, while dozens of magnitude 4–5 quakes happen each year, their summed energy is tiny compared to one magnitude 8. Therefore, minor tremors are not enough to stave off the big one; at best, they slightly reduce the stress here and there, but the bulk remains.

Beyond the pure geophysics, disaster management experts stress the human factor. The trend of increasing earthquakes (or rather increasing impact) is also due to human exposure. A report on Nepal’s disaster preparedness noted that rapid urban growth and poor construction have “significantly increased earthquake risk in Nepal in recent years”​

researchgate.net. Essentially, even if the frequency of quakes hadn’t changed, Nepal would still be at higher risk because more people and buildings stand in harm’s way than decades ago. Brian Tucker of GeoHazards International has often cited Kathmandu as one of the most earthquake-vulnerable cities in the world due to dense population and many older, unreinforced masonry buildings.

In local communities, there is also folk memory and observation. People in quake-prone districts say that they’ve felt more shakes lately. For instance, officials in the Solukhumbu (Everest region) noted that a Tibet-border quake in January 2025 was strongly felt but fortunately did little damage​

english.makalukhabar.com. Their experiences align with the data showing frequent moderate quakes along eastern Nepal after 2015​

english.makalukhabar.com.

To sum up the expert consensus: Nepal’s seismic risk is extremely high and ongoing. The apparent increase in quakes is real in the sense that we are in an active seismic period and possibly approaching the release of a major event. Scientists uniformly caution against complacency – the absence of a huge quake in western Nepal since 1505 is not good news, but rather a dire warning. Frequent small quakes are reminders of the threat and should be prompting rigorous preparedness. As one Nepali official bluntly put it after a recent tremor, “frequent earthquakes in Nepal indicate the presence of seismic activity… Smaller earthquakes release less energy, whereas larger earthquakes release much more”​

risingnepaldaily.com – meaning the big one still hangs like the proverbial sword over the region.

Preparedness and Mitigation Measures

If earthquakes are inevitable in Nepal, especially with an increasing frequency of tremors, the key question becomes: How can Nepal be prepared to minimize damage and loss of life? The tragic history and expert warnings have not fallen on deaf ears. In the wake of the 2015 disaster and the ongoing seismic activity, Nepal’s government, communities, and international partners have launched numerous initiatives to boost earthquake preparedness and resilience. From building safer structures to educating the public on emergency drills, efforts are in motion – though challenges remain in a country with limited resources. Here’s a look at what’s being done:

Government Initiatives and Disaster Plans

Building Codes and Safer Construction: One of the most critical mitigation measures is ensuring buildings don’t collapse when the ground shakes. Nepal has developed an official National Building Code that incorporates seismic-resistant design. After the 1988 quake, initial codes were drafted, and after 2015, enforcement became a priority. New buildings in cities are now required to adhere to these seismic standards – for example, using reinforced concrete, seismic belts, and proper foundation anchoring. The government, with aid agencies, has also pushed retrofitting of key structures like hospitals, schools, and older public buildings. Retrofitting involves strengthening existing buildings (through techniques like jacketing columns, adding shear walls, etc.) so they can better withstand quakes. Projects like the Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project (started in 1997) and subsequent programs have retrofitted dozens of schools and hospitals​

borgenproject.org​

wmo.int. However, enforcement outside major cities remains spotty, and many private homes in rural areas are still weak.

National Disaster Risk Management Authority: In 2019, Nepal established the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), a dedicated government body to coordinate disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. This was a major institutional step post-2015. The NDRRMA works under the Home Ministry and with provincial and local governments to implement disaster plans. It has developed policies like the Disaster Risk Reduction National Strategic Plan (2018–2030), aligning with global frameworks. One notable effort was conducting a National Earthquake Simulation Exercise in March 2024 in coordination with NSET and other agencies​

nset.org.np. Such tabletop and field exercises allow officials to practice responding to a major earthquake scenario (e.g., a M8 quake in Kathmandu) so that roles and procedures are tested ahead of time.

Local Level Preparedness: Nepal’s recent federalization (with provinces and municipalities) means local governments have more responsibility. Many municipalities, especially in quake-prone zones, have prepared or are preparing Local Disaster Management Plans. These include identifying open spaces for evacuation, mapping high-risk buildings, and setting aside emergency funds. The government with support from UNDP and others launched the “Strengthening Urban Earthquake Preparedness and Response (SUPER)” project focusing on western Nepal’s cities​

wmo.int​

wmo.int. This project works with municipalities to improve their preparedness – from reinforcing building codes compliance to establishing Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs). By 2023, multiple municipalities had set up EOCs and drafted contingency plans (for example, health and shelter cluster plans that were actually put to use in the 2023 Jajarkot quake response)​

wmo.int​

wmo.int. The Humanitarian Country Team (UN and NGOs) in Nepal also pre-position emergency supplies in warehouses across the country so that earthquake relief can be dispatched quickly if needed.

Public Drills and Awareness Campaigns: Every year on January 16 (Magh 2 in Nepali calendar), Nepal commemorates National Earthquake Safety Day. This tradition started after the 1990 (1934 AD) quake’s anniversary as a way to remind people of the ever-present risk. On this day, the government and organizations like NSET conduct public awareness programs: street dramas about earthquake safety, school shakeout drills, exhibitions of safety equipment, etc. In schools, children are taught the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” technique as part of disaster education. Some schools and offices hold annual earthquake drills where an alarm is sounded and everyone practices evacuating to safe zones.

One innovative program has been the introduction of “Go-Bags” or emergency kits at the household level. A Go-Bag (locally termed “jhatpat jhola”) is a backpack with essential items (first aid, water, flashlight, whistle, copies of documents, some food) that one can grab during an evacuation. NSET and Nepal Red Cross have promoted Go-Bags in communities, even distributing them during training sessions​

2012-2017.usaid.gov. There are awareness ads on radio and TV urging families to prepare an emergency kit and to identify safe spots in their homes. An op-ed in Kathmandu Post emphasizes that recognizing Go-Bags as survival tools is an easy, inexpensive step that can “quickly alleviate the impacts of a disaster” by ensuring you have basics on hand​

kathmandupost.com.

Early Warning and Monitoring: While true earthquake prediction is not possible, Nepal is working on an Earthquake Early Warning system in collaboration with agencies like JICA (Japan) and USGS. The idea is to install a network of sensors at the fault areas that detect the first signs of a quake and send an alert to population centers seconds before the strong shaking arrives. Even a 5-10 second warning can automatically shut down power grids or at least prompt people to duck for cover. This system is still in pilot stages. On the monitoring side, the National Seismological Center (NSC) has expanded its seismograph network post-2015 to record quakes more accurately. The NSC also has a public website that instantly posts Nepal earthquake updates for any felt event, and a “Did You Feel It?” system to crowdsource reports​

seismonepal.gov.np. They coordinate with international agencies so that events are cross-verified (often you’ll see the NSC and USGS may report slightly different magnitudes due to different measurement scales, but overall collaboration).

Community Preparedness and Local Adaptation

In Nepal’s communities, especially at the grassroots, a lot has been happening to adapt to the seismic threat:

NSET and Community Training: The National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET), a respected NGO, has been at the forefront of community-based preparedness since the 1990s. NSET’s motto is “Earthquake safety for all.” They run training programs for masons and engineers on how to build earthquake-resistant buildings with local materials – e.g., using reinforcements in masonry, tying roof trusses, etc. Through its famous School Earthquake Safety Program (SESP), NSET retrofitted over 300 school buildings and trained teachers and students in drills​

2017-2020.usaid.gov. This program literally saved lives in 2015 – schools retrofitted before the quake survived, protecting hundreds of children who were inside. NSET also helps communities form Local Disaster Management Committees. These committees map their neighborhood’s resources and vulnerable people (like elderly who might need help during an evacuation). They organize periodic evacuation drills and ensure each family knows the nearest safe open space.

A powerful example of community adaptation is the spread of the concept of “Safe DIY Construction.” Many homes in Nepal are still built by owners and local masons rather than formal contractors. Through radio programs, pamphlets in Nepali, and demonstration construction sites, organizations have taught simple earthquake-resistant techniques: like how to properly join walls, add a seismic band (a concrete or wooden band running around the house at mid-height to hold walls together), and not to remove support walls. These techniques have started to catch on, so newer rural houses are hopefully a bit safer.

Public Awareness & Media: Media in Nepal regularly discuss earthquake preparedness, especially whenever a tremor is felt. There are talk shows with experts explaining what to do during quakes. Social media campaigns by Nepali youth groups share infographics on “Dos and Don’ts” (for example: Do drop and take cover under a table; Don’t run for the exit during shaking; Do turn off gas valves after a quake; Don’t believe in rumors about animals predicting quakes, etc.). After the 2:51 AM Sindhupalchowk quake, many Nepalis spontaneously went online searching for safety tips, which shows awareness is high.

Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT): In some neighborhoods of Kathmandu and Pokhara, volunteers have formed small CERT teams. They get basic training in first aid, light search-and-rescue, and firefighting. In an earthquake aftermath, these trained locals can act as first responders in their community, freeing up professional responders to focus on major collapses. For instance, youths in Bungamati (a town that was hard-hit in 2015) organized into groups that can quickly check on elderly residents and help clear debris if another quake hits.

Critical Infrastructure Upgrades: Recognizing the importance of keeping hospitals and utilities running after a quake, there have been projects to reinforce critical infrastructure. Major hospitals in Kathmandu (like Bir Hospital, Patan Hospital) now have earthquake-resistant wings or retrofitting, often supported by donors. The utility companies have drafted contingency plans to restore water and power quickly if lines break. Some bridges on key highways have been retrofitted or rebuilt with seismic considerations, so that aid routes remain open.

Despite all these efforts, challenges remain. Nepal’s terrain and resource constraints mean many remote areas still lack preparedness. Enforcing building codes in rapidly expanding informal settlements is tough. And not everyone keeps the level of urgency high when memories of the last quake fade – “earthquake fatigue” or complacency can set in. That’s why continuous public engagement is needed to keep people vigilant.

Safety Tips for Individuals and Organizations

Ultimately, preparedness comes down to each of us – knowing what to do before, during, and after a quake can save your life. Here are some earthquake preparedness tips tailored for individuals, families, and organizations in Nepal (and generally applicable anywhere in seismic zones):

• Learn Safe Spots & Create a Plan: Identify the safest places in each room of your home or office. These are typically under sturdy furniture (like a solid table) or against an interior structural wall. Make a family emergency plan – decide where everyone will meet if separated and how you’ll communicate. In Nepal, it’s wise to agree on an open space nearby (most neighborhoods have an open ground or park designated as evacuation sites post-2015). Know the exit routes of your building, but do not rush for exits during shaking – most injuries occur from falling debris in stairwells or as people panic. Plan that after the quake stops, you’ll meet at the open area.
• Prepare an Emergency Kit (Go-Bag): As mentioned, a Go-Bag can be a lifesaver. Pack one for your household with at least the following: a first aid kit and essential medications, bottled water (enough for 3 days for everyone), non-perishable food, a flashlight and extra batteries, a whistle (to signal rescuers if trapped), a phone power bank, copies of important documents (IDs, passports, land papers) sealed in waterproof bags, some cash, and warm clothing or a blanket. Keep this bag in an easily accessible place. Also, keep a pair of sturdy shoes near your bed – many get injured by stepping on broken glass and rubble right after a quake.
• Strengthen Your Home: If you’re building a new house, invest in following the seismic building code – it’s worth it for your family’s safety. If you live in an old brick or mud house, consider retrofitting: add braces, tie the roof and walls together with metal straps, and reduce heavy items on high shelves or attic (to lower the center of gravity). At minimum, secure heavy furniture and shelves to walls so they won’t topple. Don’t hang heavy picture frames or mirrors above beds or sofas.
• During the Quake – Drop, Cover, Hold On: As soon as you feel tremors, drop down to the floor (before the quake drops you!), take cover under a sturdy table or desk, and hold on to it firmly. If no table is around, crouch against an interior wall and cover your head and neck with your arms. Stay away from windows, heavy furniture, or appliances that could fall. Do not run outside while the ground is shaking – you are safer indoors under cover than risking being hit by falling bricks or glass on the street​ifrc.org. If you are in bed, and cannot move safely, protect your head with a pillow and stay there until shaking stops. If outdoors, move to an open area away from buildings, trees, and power lines, and drop to the ground until the shaking stops. If driving, pull over to a clear location, stop and stay in the vehicle with seatbelt on​redcross.org.
• After the Quake – Be Cautious and Communicate: Once the tremors cease, expect aftershocks – so carefully exit buildings (aftershocks can bring down weakened structures). Check yourself and family for injuries and administer first aid if needed. Turn off the gas supply and electricity if you suspect damage (to prevent fires). Use battery radio or phone (if networks work) to get news – don’t trust rumors. Only make emergency calls to keep lines free; use SMS or apps to let others know you’re okay. If you smell gas or hear a hissing, open windows and leave the building. Stay away from damaged areas unless you’re helping – debris can be unstable. In Kathmandu, know your nearest disaster assembly point (the government has signposted many open spaces as evacuation sites). And help others if you can, especially the injured or those who might be trapped – but do so carefully, avoiding unstable rubble unless properly trained.
• For organizations and schools: Conduct regular earthquake drills. Every office or school should have an emergency plan: who will account for people, where is the evacuation spot, and what supplies are on site. Critical facilities like hospitals should have backup power and water that can last days. Businesses should secure heavy equipment and backup important data offsite. Schools in Nepal now often practice drill where at a siren, children perform drop-cover-hold, then evacuate to the playground – such drills should continue regularly to ingrain the response.

Preparedness is not just a one-time thing – it’s an ongoing process of staying informed, keeping supplies fresh, and knowing the latest best practices. As the Nepali proverb goes, “भुकम्प आउँदैन भनेर होइन, आउने भएर तयारी गरौँ” – “Prepare not because earthquakes might not come, but because they will come.”

Call to Action

Nepal’s increasing earthquakes are a call to action for all of us – whether you live in Nepal or in any earthquake-prone region. Staying informed, prepared, and proactive can save lives. Here are some concrete actions and encouragements for readers:

• Stay Informed with Reliable Updates: Make sure you get your information from trustworthy sources. Follow the Nepal National Seismological Center (seismonepal.gov.np) for official earthquake reports and safety information. International agencies like the USGS Earthquake Hazard Program and VolcanoDiscovery provide near-real-time quake reports and maps for Nepal​earthquaketrack.com​volcanodiscovery.com. Consider downloading a reputable earthquake alert app on your phone – there are apps (like QuakeFeed, EQInfo, or even the American Red Cross app) that can notify you seconds after a quake is detected, which is useful for staying aware (though true early-warning specific to Nepal is under development). Knowledge is power: if you know which areas are hit and what magnitude, you can make informed decisions post-quake.
• Engage in Community Drills and Trainings: If your city or neighborhood organizes an earthquake drill, participate! These drills might be annual or more frequent, often held on Earthquake Safety Day or coordinated by local disaster management committees. By taking them seriously, you not only learn what to do, but you encourage others around you to do the same, building a culture of readiness. Employers should conduct workplace evacuation drills; schools should regularly practice their emergency response with teachers and kids. If you have the opportunity, attend a basic first aid or Community Emergency Response Team training – being able to provide first aid or assist in rescue in the first 72 hours after a big quake (when official help might be overwhelmed) is invaluable.
• Support and Volunteer: There are many organizations in Nepal working on earthquake preparedness and response that could use your help. You can volunteer with groups like NSET, Nepal Red Cross Society, or local youth clubs that do preparedness outreach. Even if you’re not a trained engineer or medic, volunteers help in dissemination of information, organizing community meetings, or logistics during disaster drills. If volunteering time is hard, consider donating to disaster relief funds or preparedness projects. For example, the Nepal Red Cross runs programs to train communities and stockpile relief materials – donations to them strengthen local capacity​redcross.org. Internationally, organizations like GeoHazards International or architects without borders have Nepal programs one can support.
• Advocate for Resilient Policies: Use your voice as a citizen to encourage government and local leaders to prioritize disaster risk reduction. This could mean lobbying for better enforcement of building codes (so contractors don’t cut corners), or pushing for the retrofitting of that old local school or hospital. Community groups can meet municipal officials to ask about the status of the local disaster management plan or emergency fund. Remember, preparedness isn’t just personal, it’s political – funds and policies need to be in place. So, vote and advocate for leaders who support smart urban planning, strict construction standards, and funding for emergency services.
• Educate and Share Knowledge: Spread the word about earthquake preparedness to your family, friends, and social circle. Something as simple as teaching an elderly family member how to Drop, Cover, Hold On, or helping a neighbor put together an emergency kit, can make a difference. Share reputable resources on social media – for instance, the IFRC (International Federation of Red Cross) has simple graphics on earthquake safety​ifrc.org, and Nepal’s Home Ministry or NDRRMA often publish guidelines in Nepali. The more people talk about and normalize preparedness, the less scary and more actionable it becomes.
• Leverage Technology and Apps: There are also some apps and tools specifically useful for disaster situations. For example, the BIPAD Portal (bipad.gov.np) by the Nepali government provides real-time disaster info and maps. Globally, apps like “Safety Check” on Facebook or Google’s crisis response service can let loved ones know you’re safe after a major quake – be aware of these features. Make sure at least one person in your household has a charged power bank and the ability to receive news if power is out.
• Foster a Preparedness Culture: Lastly, encourage a mindset that preparedness is a continuous process. Nepal has a beautiful communal culture – use that to collectively prepare. Organize with your neighbors to clean and maintain the nearest open space (it might be your lifeline camp after a quake). Perhaps celebrate a “family preparedness day” once a year where you review your emergency plan and refresh your go-bag. Little by little, these actions embed resilience into daily life.

In conclusion, your actions today could save lives tomorrow. Nepal’s increasing earthquakes highlight that we cannot afford to be complacent. The Earth will shake – but through knowledge, preparation, and unity, we can prevent a natural event from becoming a full-blown human catastrophe.

We urge you to take at least one step from this article: discuss earthquake safety at home tonight, attend that drill, donate to a preparedness cause, or simply share this information with others. Together, these actions contribute to a safer, more prepared Nepal.

Stay alert, stay safe, and remember – preparedness is the only way to confront the certainty of future earthquakes. Nepal has done it before and rebuilt, and with collective effort, it will withstand the quakes to come.